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• World Cup Qualification UEFA
• Estonia x Italy

Estonia - Italy 11.10.2025

• 11/10/25 14:45 |
  Round 7
• Estonia

  Sappinen R. - 76'
  • 1 : 3
  • Finished
  Italy

  Kean M. - 5'

  Retegui M. - 38'

  Esposito F. - 74'

Summary Lineups

EST

Match details

ITA

1st Half 0:2

5 Kean M. Assist: Dimarco F.

12 Barella N.

15 Esposito F. Out: Kean M.

29 Kuusk M.

30 Retegui M.

38 Retegui M. Assist: Orsolini R.

41 Palumets K.

2nd Half 1:1

46 Schjonning-Larsen M. Out: Palumets K.

46 Sinyavskiy V. Out: Saliste J.

59 Peetson R.

62 Cambiaso A. Out: Orsolini R.

62 Spinazzola L. Out: Raspadori G.

62 Mets K. Out: Kuusk M.

62 Sappinen R. Out: Tamm A.

72 Bastoni A.

74 Esposito F. Assist: Spinazzola L.

76 Sappinen R.

78 Cristante B. Out: Retegui M.

78 Frattesi D. Out: Barella N.

83 Mustmaa K. Out: Shein R.

84 Cambiaso A.

87 Sinyavskiy V.

EST

Statistics

ITA

0.97

Expected goals (xG) Expected goals xG - measures the quality of a scoring chance and the probability of it becoming a goal. It's calculated from factors like shot location, angle, distance, assist type, and defensive pressure. Each shot gets a value from 0 to 1; a team's total xG is the sum of all its shots. A penalty is usually worth ~0.79–0.80. Higher xG = better chances, regardless of whether goals were actually scored.

2.29

36 %

Ball possession

64 %

1

Big chances Big chances - counts clear scoring opportunities where a goal is highly expected. These are situations like one-on-one with the goalkeeper, close-range shots with little defensive pressure, or shots into an open goal.

3

• 0.8 0.8 0.8
• Goals scored per match
• 2.5 2.3 2.4

• 1.6 2 1.8
• Goals conceded per match
• 1.3 2.5 1.8

• 37.5' 32.1' 34.6'
• Minutes/Goal scored
• 23.5' 18.9' 21.4'

Full Stats

EST

H2H Stats

ITA

All tournaments UEFA EURO, Qualification World Cup Qualification UEFA International Friendly Games 5 matches All matches 5 matches 5 matches 5 matches

• 0wins
• 0draws
• 100% 5wins

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Top Scorers

Estonia

Europe World Cup Qualification UEFA

#

Goals

• 13 Kait M.
  3
• 15 Sappinen R.
  2
• 3 Paskotsi M.
  1
• 6 Peetson R.
  1
• 77 Saarma R.
  1

Italy

Europe World Cup Qualification UEFA

#

Goals

• 20 Kean M.
  12
• 32 Retegui M.
  5
• 8 Tonali S.
  5
• 18 Raspadori G.
  3
• 94 Esposito F.
  3

Show full top scorers

Match facts

Italy have previously won 4 of 6 matches against Estonia.

During the last 6 meetings, Estonia have won 0 times, there have been 0 draws while Italy have won 6 times. The goal difference is 20-2 in favour of Italy.

Estonia have a losing streak of 3 matches in World Cup Qualification UEFA.

Italy have a winning streak of 3 matches in World Cup Qualification UEFA.

Did you know that Italy scores 33% of their goals between the minutes 46-60?

Estonia haven't won in their last 4 games.

Estonia have played 4 home matches in a row without winning.

Italy have a winning streak of 3 matches.

Estonia haven't won any of their last 6 games against Italy.

Estonia have not managed to score in their last 3 matches.

Estonia wins 1st half in 11% of their matches, Italy in 44% of their matches.

Estonia wins 11% of halftimes, Italy wins 44%.

The winner of their last meeting was Italy.

On their last meeting Italy won by 5 goals.

When Estonia leads 1-0 at home, they win in 0% of their matches.

When Italy leads 0-1 away, they win in 100% of their matches.

When Estonia is down 0-1 home, they win 0% of their matches.

When Italy is down 1-0 away, they win 33% of their matches.

In World Cup Qualification UEFA, Italy has better performance than Estonia.

Italy's performance of the last 5 matches is better than Estonia's.

Estonia has streak of 3 matches with 0 scored goals.

Italy have lost just 0 of their last 5 games against Estonia (in all competitions).

In the last 5 meetings Estonia won 0, Italy won 5, 0 draws.

Estonia scores 0.4 goals in a match against Italy and Italy scores 3.6 goals against Estonia (on average).

Average number of goals in meetings between Estonia and Italy is 4.

Estonia scores 0.25 goals when playing at home and Italy scores 2.25 goals when playing away (on average).

More facts

Predictions

As part of the World Cup Qualification UEFA (Europe) tournament, the match between teams Estonia and Italy is scheduled. The game will start on 11.10 at 14:45. All sports bettors can follow in-depth Estonia Italy betting tips using the subsequent analysis of teams' statistics and prediction for the match.

2 / 10 of last matches Estonia in all tournaments ended with her victory

1 / 5 of last matches Estonia in World Cup Qualification UEFA ended with her victory

3 / 10 of her last matches Italy in all competitions ended in defeat

1 / 4 of last matches Italy in World Cup Qualification UEFA ended in defeat

1 / 10 of the last matches Estonia in all tournaments ended with its victory in the 2nd half

4 / 10 of the last matches Italy in all tournaments ended with a loss in the 2nd half

More predictions

EST

Standings

ITA

Europe World Cup Qualification UEFA

#	Group A	GP	W	D	L	G	GD	P
1	Germany	6	5	0	1	16:3	13	15
2	Slovakia	6	4	0	2	6:8	-2	12
3	Northern Ireland	6	3	0	3	7:6	1	9
4	Luxembourg	6	0	0	6	1:13	-12	0

#	Group B	GP	W	D	L	G	GD	P
1	Switzerland	6	4	2	0	14:2	12	14
2	Kosovo	6	3	2	1	6:5	1	11
3	Slovenia	6	0	4	2	3:8	-5	4
4	Sweden	6	0	2	4	4:12	-8	2

Full Standings

EST

Line Up

ITA

4-2-3-1 3-4-3

Line Up

Starting

1 Hein

6 Peetson 3 Paskotsi 2 Kuusk 3 Saliste

5 Shein 10 Palumets

4 Kait 8 Soomets 7 Saarma

21 Tamm

1 Donnarumma

22 Di Lorenzo 21 Bastoni 13 Calafiori

7 Orsolini 18 Barella 8 Tonali 3 Dimarco

10 Raspadori 9 Retegui 11 Kean

EST

Starting

ITA

Hein K. Goalkeeper Kuusk M. 62' Mets K. Paskotsi M. Defender Peetson R. Defender Saliste J. 46' Sinyavskiy V. Shein R. 83' Mustmaa K. Palumets K. 46' Schjonning-Larsen M. Saarma R. Midfielder Soomets M. Midfielder Kait M. Forward Tamm A. 62' Sappinen R.

Donnarumma G. Goalkeeper Bastoni A. Defender Calafiori R. Defender Dimarco F. Defender Di Lorenzo G. Defender Barella N. 78' Frattesi D. Tonali S. Midfielder Orsolini R. 62' Cambiaso A. Raspadori G. 62' Spinazzola L. Retegui M. 78' Cristante B. Kean M. 15' Esposito F.

EST

Substitutes

ITA

Igonen M. Goalkeeper Perk H. Goalkeeper Tamm J. Defender Mets K. 62' Out: Kuusk M. Schjonning-Larsen M. 46' Out: Palumets K. Yakovlev I. Midfielder Miller M. Midfielder Vetkal M. Midfielder Sinyavskiy V. 46' Out: Saliste J. Mustmaa K. 83' Out: Shein R. Kristal P. Forward Sappinen R. 62' Out: Tamm A.

Carnesecchi M. Goalkeeper Vicario G. Goalkeeper Gabbia M. Defender Spinazzola L. 62' Out: Raspadori G. Udogie D. Defender Cambiaso A. 62' Out: Orsolini R. Mancini G. Defender Locatelli M. Midfielder Cristante B. 78' Out: Retegui M. Frattesi D. 78' Out: Barella N. Cambiaghi N. Midfielder Esposito F. 15' Out: Kean M.

EST

Head coach

ITA

Henn J. Coaches

Gattuso G. Coaches